Hi,
Am Tim Wallace, Cold Climate Heat Pump Specialist in Arctic Heat Pumps
For cold-climate heat pumps (especially modern EVI/DC inverter models that perform well down to -20degF or lower), the best thermostat strategy during deep freezes prioritizes minimizing auxiliary/backup heat while balancing comfort and energy costs.
Core Principle
Cold-climate heat pumps are highly efficient at maintaining steady temperatures but recover slowly from large drops. Aggressive setbacks often trigger expensive electric resistance auxiliary heat (AUX) during morning recovery, wiping out (or reversing) savings.
My Most Effective Strategy (Real-World Savings)
In my installations across Zone 5-7 climates, clients see the biggest bill reductions with:
No setback or very minimal (1-3degF max) during extreme cold (<20degF outdoors).
Keep a constant setpoint (e.g., 68-70degF daytime, same or 1degF lower at night). This lets the inverter modulate low and steady—where COP is highest—without ever hitting AUX.
Gradual recovery if you must setback for sleep comfort.
Use a smart thermostat (ecobee, Nest, or Honeywell) with "adaptive/smart recovery." Example schedule:
Drop to 67degF at 10 PM (from 69degF).
Start pre-recovery at ~4 AM to hit 69degF by 7 AM without spiking demand.
This avoids AUX in most cases and saves ~5-10% vs. constant if recovery aligns with milder morning temps.
Key Tweak That Made the Biggest Difference
Raising the auxiliary heat lockout temperature as high as comfort allows (e.g., 30-35degF outdoors).
Many defaults are conservative (20-25degF), forcing AUX too early. On true cold-climate units (Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat, Daikin Aurora, etc.), I've set lockouts to 35degF+ with an outdoor sensor—relying solely on the heat pump down to 0degF or below. One client in Minnesota cut AUX runtime by 80% and saved ~$250 over a polar vortex week.
Why This Beats Deep Setbacks
Deep drops (5degF+) force full-capacity recovery in the coldest hours - lower COP + AUX engagement - higher bills. NREL and DOE studies show no-setback or minimal strategies often use 10-20% less energy in sub-zero stretches.
Regards,
Tim Wallace
https://www.arcticheatpumps.com/
Climate Heat Pump Specialist